KBO standings race 2026: third place comes down to LG at KIA on October 12 after Lotte beat KIA 4-1; LG has to win, a draw is enough for KIA, and Lotte-Doosan settles seventh

On Sunday, October 11, Lotte won 4-1 at KIA, and KT won 12-3 at Samsung. On Friday, October 9, KIA won 7-2 at NC, Lotte beat LG 9-1 and SSG beat Samsung 3-1. On Saturday, October 10, LG won 4-3 at Lotte, NC won 9-8 at Hanwha and KIA beat SSG 8-5. Third place was not settled over the three days, and LG at KIA on Monday, October 12 decides it. Lotte at Doosan the same day decides seventh and eighth between Lotte and NC.

Every figure here uses results through Sunday, October 11, when both scheduled games were played, both now final; Monday's three games are the last of the regular season. The figures for Monday's results were produced by feeding hypothetical results into the engine that builds this site's tables. A reachable finish is a boundary set by two records, the one a club finishes with if it wins every game it has left (its ceiling) and the one it finishes with if it loses them all (its floor), and the games-left counts assume a full 144-game season. Draws are left out of the winning percentage. This piece covers only the arithmetic of the games left, one result at a time.

Our last update said nobody could make sure of third on Friday night, and nobody did. It named Saturday, October 10 as the earliest third could be settled: for KIA to clinch that night, LG had to lose both games at Lotte while KIA beat both NC and SSG, or beat one and drew with the other. KIA won both, and LG lost on Friday, but LG's 4-3 win at Lotte on Saturday closed that branch. Had LG lost on Saturday, KIA would have been third that night; a draw would not have done it. On Sunday a win or even a draw against Lotte would have clinched third for KIA, because its floor would have become 79-63-2 (.556) or 78-63-3 (.553), above the 79-64-1 (.552) LG reaches by beating KIA on Monday. Lotte won, and that branch closed too. Of the 243 results of the five games from Friday to Sunday that our last update ran, it was not one of the 40 in which KIA clinches third or the 21 in which LG does, but one of the 182 that go to Monday.

That update also said that, if no game is drawn, the winner of Monday's meeting needs only 2 from the other five games from October 9 on, counting its own wins and its rival's losses, and the loser needs 4. Over the three days KIA beat NC and SSG for 2 and LG lost on Friday for 1 more, making 3. LG has its Saturday win and KIA's Sunday loss, making 2. Both have reached 2 and neither has reached 4, so the winner on Monday is third.

Third is down to one game between KIA (78-63-2, .553) and LG (78-64-1, .549). Each has one game left, their meeting at KIA's park on the 12th. In wins minus losses KIA is +15 and LG +14. There are three results. If KIA wins, KIA finishes 79-63-2 (.556) and LG 78-65-1 (.545), and KIA is third. If LG wins, LG finishes 79-64-1 (.552) and KIA 78-64-2 (.549), and LG is third. If they draw, KIA finishes 78-63-3 (.553) and LG 78-64-2 (.549), and KIA is third. In none of them do the two finish level on percentage, so the tie rule for third and fourth, which starts with head-to-head wins, does not come into it. KIA leads the season series 8-7, and Monday's result ends it 9-7, 8-8 or 8-7-1.

The clinch wins for third on the team pages and the magic number page are 1 for KIA and 1 for LG. The figures match but do not weigh the same: LG is third only if it wins, while KIA is third with a draw, because a draw leaves its one-game lead in wins minus losses as it is. Here is how the figures moved over the three days. On Wednesday night they were 4 for KIA and 3 for LG. On Friday night KIA's fell to 2, and LG, after losing at Lotte, could no longer make sure of third on its own even by winning both of its games left. On Saturday night KIA's fell to 1, and LG still came up short even by winning out, because KIA, even losing to LG on Monday, would have finished 79-63-2 (.556) by beating Lotte on Sunday, above LG's 79-64-1 (.552) from winning out. Lotte's win over KIA on Sunday gave LG back a figure of 1: win on Monday.

Each place leads somewhere different. Under the KBO schedule on the postseason page, third plays Games 1 and 2 of the Semi-Playoff (best of five) at home on Saturday, October 17 and Sunday, October 18, against the Wild Card winner. Fourth hosts the Wild Card round on Wednesday, October 14 with a one-win head start, so it advances by beating or drawing with Doosan once; Game 2, if needed, is at the same park on Thursday, October 15. If LG wins on Monday, the round is KIA against Doosan at fourth-place KIA's park; if KIA wins or the game is drawn, it is LG against Doosan at Jamsil, as LG home games. First-place KT goes straight to the Korean Series (best of seven), which starts on November 2, and second-place Samsung to the Playoff (best of five), which starts on October 25. Games rained out move to the next day, so dates can change.

Fifth-place Doosan (73-65-5) was fixed in fifth on Wednesday night. Monday's game against Lotte cannot change Doosan's place, but it sets the order of Lotte and NC. NC finished its season with Saturday's game at Hanwha at 64-78-2 (.4507). Lotte (63-77-3, .450) finishes seventh at 64-77-3 (.4539) by beating Doosan, and eighth at 63-78-3 (.447) by losing. A draw leaves it eighth too, at 63-77-4 (.4500), just under NC. The two cannot finish level, so the season series (NC 9-7) does not come into it. In the terms our last update used, Lotte's wins and NC's losses over the three days came to 3, and NC's wins and Lotte's losses to 2, so a Lotte win makes 4 and puts Lotte above, and a Lotte loss makes 3 and puts NC above. Had Lotte lost or drawn at KIA on Sunday, NC would have been fixed in seventh that night.

SSG was fixed in sixth on Friday night, when it beat Samsung 3-1. Even losing its one game left, it would finish 65-74-5 (.4676), above the 65-76-3 (.4610) Lotte could reach by winning out. As our last update said, Lotte could finish above SSG only by winning all 4 of its games left while SSG lost both of its own, and SSG's win on Friday closed that branch. SSG then lost at KIA on Saturday to finish 65-74-5. Hanwha (57-83-4) finished ninth and Kiwoom (50-90-4) tenth. KT (89-49-5) and Samsung (83-57-3) are already fixed in first and second, so their last meeting, on Monday at Samsung's park, cannot change either place.

We ran all 27 results of Monday's three games, draws included. In every one of them each club's place is settled the moment the regular season ends, and no one-game tiebreaker is needed. KIA is third in 18 and LG in 9, and NC is seventh in 18 and Lotte in 9. Third is decided by LG at KIA alone and seventh by Lotte at Doosan alone; KT at Samsung plays no part in either.

How to read these numbers. A reachable finish is a boundary set by ceilings and floors: the best finish assumes a club wins every game it has left while its rivals lose theirs, and the worst the reverse. A club that can only draw level is not counted above you when finding your best finish, and is counted above you when finding your worst, so every count in this piece is the point at which a rival can no longer even finish level. The standings show each club's reachable finish, the magic number page the counts for each place, the fixtures the games left, the postseason page the bracket and tie rules, and the methodology page the working behind every figure. The what-if page lets you set any game still to be played. Each club's answer is on its team page: KIA, LG, Doosan, Lotte, NC.