KBO standings race 2026: Doosan is fixed in fifth after LG beat it 7-5 and KIA won 12-4 at Lotte on Wednesday, leaving KIA and LG to settle third, with their meeting on October 12 still to come

On Wednesday, October 7, Doosan lost 7-5 at LG, and KIA beat Lotte 12-4 on the road. Those two results fixed Doosan in fifth place in the regular season and left KIA and LG unable to finish below fourth. Also on Wednesday, SSG beat NC 6-3, KT beat Samsung 9-3 and Kiwoom beat Hanwha 5-3. On Tuesday, October 6, KT won 10-1 at Kiwoom, LG beat NC 6-1, Doosan won 3-1 at Lotte, Hanwha beat SSG 9-2 and Samsung won 5-4 at KIA. One race is left among the five postseason clubs: KIA and LG for third.

Every figure here uses results through Wednesday, October 7, when all five scheduled games were played, all of them now final; there are no games on Thursday the 8th. The figures for results still to come were produced by feeding hypothetical results into the engine that builds this site's tables. A reachable finish is a boundary set by two records, the one a club finishes with if it wins every game it has left (its ceiling) and the one it finishes with if it loses them all (its floor), and the games-left counts assume a full 144-game season. Draws are left out of the winning percentage. None of this is a probability.

Our last update said that, of the 243 results of Tuesday's five games, only one thing could be settled that night: KIA making sure of finishing above Doosan, in the 27 where KIA beat Samsung and Doosan lost at Lotte. KIA lost and Doosan won, so that did not happen, and every club's reachable finish was the same as before Tuesday's games. On Tuesday night KIA was 75-62-2, LG 76-63-1 and Doosan 73-64-5, and all three could still finish anywhere from third to fifth.

On Wednesday night Doosan's ceiling, even if it wins its one game left, against Lotte on Monday, October 12, is 74-65-5 (.5324). KIA finishes 76-66-2 (.535) even if it loses all 4 of its games left, and LG 77-66-1 (.538) even if it loses all 3, so both finish above Doosan. Doosan's floor of 73-66-5 (.525) is above SSG's ceiling of 66-73-5 (.475), so it cannot drop below fifth either. Both of Wednesday's results were needed. Had LG lost to Doosan, Doosan's ceiling would have been 75-64-5 (.540), and had they drawn, 74-64-6 (.536), above both KIA's and LG's floors. Had KIA lost at Lotte, its floor would have been 75-67-2 (.528), and had it drawn, 75-66-3 (.5319), short of Doosan's ceiling (.5324), so only LG would have made sure of finishing above Doosan, and Doosan would have stayed fourth or fifth. In the terms our last update used, KIA's wins and Doosan's losses over the two days came to 1 and 1, or 2, and LG's wins and Doosan's losses to 2 and 1, or 3, each exactly the number needed. Of the 59,049 combinations of Tuesday's and Wednesday's ten games, it is one of the 20,655 that update counted as fixing Doosan in fifth, and exactly the branch it described for a Doosan win at Lotte: LG beating both NC and Doosan, and KIA winning at least one of its two.

Each place leads somewhere different. Under the format on the postseason page, first-place KT goes straight to the Korean Series (best of seven) and second-place Samsung to the Playoff (best of five). Third waits in the Semi-Playoff (best of five) for the Wild Card winner. Fourth hosts the Wild Card round and starts with a one-win head start, so it advances by winning once, while fifth-place Doosan plays up to 2 games, all at the fourth seed's park, and must win twice. If KIA is fourth, the round is at KIA's park; if LG is, it is at Jamsil, which LG and Doosan share, as LG home games.

KT (88-49-5, .642) and Samsung (83-55-3, .601) are already fixed in first and second, so their last two meetings, on Sunday, October 11, and Monday the 12th at Samsung's park, cannot change either place. Sixth to tenth is nearly settled too. Kiwoom has finished its season at 50-90-4 (.357) in tenth, and Hanwha is fixed in ninth at 57-82-4 (.410). SSG (64-73-5, 2 games left) can finish sixth or seventh, NC (63-77-2, 2 left) seventh or eighth, and Lotte (61-76-3, 4 left) sixth to eighth. SSG already finishes above NC. Lotte finishes above SSG only if it wins all 4 of its games left (LG twice, KIA and Doosan) while SSG loses both of its own, to Samsung on Friday the 9th and at KIA on Saturday the 10th; a single draw among them is enough to stop it. If no game is drawn, Lotte is sure to finish above NC once its wins and NC's losses add up to 4, and NC above Lotte once its wins and Lotte's losses add up to 3.

Third is between KIA (76-62-2, .551, 4 games left) and LG (77-63-1, .550, 3 left). KIA is just ahead on winning percentage and third in the standings. KIA's ceiling is 80-62-2 (.563) and its floor 76-66-2 (.535); LG's ceiling is 80-63-1 (.559) and its floor 77-66-1 (.538). KIA has NC away on the 9th, then SSG on the 10th, Lotte on the 11th and LG on the 12th, all three at home; LG plays two at Lotte on the 9th and 10th and finishes at KIA on the 12th. If no game is drawn, KIA is sure to finish above LG once its wins and LG's losses add up to 4, and LG above KIA once its wins and KIA's losses add up to 4. The meeting on the 12th counts for both. KIA's 4 games and LG's 3 make 7, so the two counts always add up to 7, and without a draw one of them always reaches 4.

With draws included, the simplest way to see it is wins minus losses. KIA (76-62) and LG (77-63) are both +14 right now. KIA is ahead on percentage because it has 138 decisions to LG's 140. Whichever adds more to its wins minus losses over its games left finishes above. If both add the same, the draws in their games left decide it: if LG has exactly one more draw than KIA, they finish level on percentage; if LG has two or more extra, LG finishes above; otherwise KIA does. Across all 729 results of their six remaining games, KIA is third in 380, LG in 309, and they finish level in 40. In the 64 results without a draw they never finish level, because with 4 games KIA's wins minus losses moves by an even number and with 3 LG's moves by an odd one.

The clinch wins for third on the team pages and the magic number page are 4 for KIA and 3 for LG: each is sure of third whatever else happens only by winning every game it has left. Winning out takes KIA to 80-62-2 (.563), above the 79-64-1 (.552) LG reaches by beating Lotte twice. KIA also finishes third going 3-1 as long as the loss is not to LG on the 12th, since that adds 2 to its wins minus losses, more than the 1 LG could add. If the loss is to LG, KIA's 79-63-2 (.556) falls short of LG's 80-63-1 (.559) from winning out. LG, even beating KIA on the 12th and going 2-1, falls short if KIA wins its other three, with KIA's 79-63-2 (.556) above LG's 79-64-1 (.552). Before Tuesday's games KIA's figure was 5, and LG could not make sure of third on its own even by winning out. On Tuesday night they became 5 for KIA and 4 for LG, and with both winning on Wednesday they are now 4 and 3.

The earliest third can be settled is Saturday, October 10. Nobody can make sure of it on Friday night. For KIA to clinch third on Saturday night, LG has to lose both games at Lotte while KIA beats both NC and SSG, or beats one and draws with the other: 3 of 81 results. LG clinches on Saturday only if it wins both at Lotte while KIA loses to both NC and SSG, a single result. Of the 243 results of the five games through Sunday, October 11, KIA clinches third in 40 and LG in 21. Because the meeting on the 12th can still move the gap in wins minus losses by 2, a club clinches by Sunday if it has added at least 3 more than its rival. If it has added exactly 2 more, counting only games from October 9 on, KIA clinches if it has drawn at least as often as LG, and LG if it has drawn at least two more times than KIA. Otherwise it goes to the LG-KIA game on the 12th. If no game is drawn, the winner of that game needs only 2 more from the other five games, counting its own wins and its rival's losses, and the loser needs 4. In the 243 results where LG wins on the 12th, LG is third in 192 and KIA in 40; where KIA wins, KIA is third in 211 and LG in 21; and where they draw, KIA is third in 129 and LG in 96. The other 40 (11 with an LG win, 11 with a KIA win and 18 with a draw) end level on percentage.

Each of those 40 level finishes includes at least one draw, and in all of them the standings show both clubs third to fourth. If third and fourth finish level, it is decided without an extra game, by head-to-head wins, then head-to-head runs, then the previous season's finish. KIA leads LG 8-7, so KIA stays ahead if it wins or draws on the 12th, and if LG wins, the season series ends 8-8 and it goes to head-to-head runs. This site's engine does not work out head-to-head order. Across all 177,147 results of the 11 games left, KT stays first, Samsung second, Doosan fifth, Hanwha ninth and Kiwoom tenth, and KIA's and LG's places are decided by the six games involving them alone.

How to read these numbers. A reachable finish is a boundary set by ceilings and floors: the best finish assumes a club wins every game it has left while its rivals lose theirs, and the worst the reverse. A club that can only draw level is not counted above you when finding your best finish, and is counted above you when finding your worst, so every count in this piece is the point at which a rival can no longer even finish level. The standings show each club's reachable finish, the magic number page the counts for each place, the fixtures the games left, the postseason page the bracket and tie rules, and the methodology page the working behind every figure. The what-if page lets you set any game still to be played. Each club's answer is on its team page: KIA, LG, Doosan, KT, Samsung.