KBO playoff race 2026: LG clinches without playing, Doosan's clinch number falls from 9 to 6 in two games

Doosan has played twice since the September 20 update and its clinch number has dropped by three. On Sunday it needed 9 wins from its last 12 to secure a postseason place on its own. After Wednesday it needs 6 from 10. Two of the three came from Doosan's own wins, 5-3 at Kiwoom on Tuesday and 3-2 at home to KIA on Wednesday. The third came from a game Doosan did not play: NC's 8-5 loss at Samsung on Tuesday. That same result clinched a place for LG, which has not played since Sunday.

Every figure here is computed from results through Wednesday, September 23. Seven games have been played since the last update, four on Tuesday and three on Wednesday, with Monday an off day. Thursday's games are not included. Clinch numbers assume the worst case, that every rival wins every game it has left. None of this is a probability.

NC's loss counts because NC sets the line for fifth place, and a ceiling (the record a club finishes with if it wins out) can only move down. A win leaves it where it was. A loss takes one win off it. On Sunday NC's ceiling was 75-67-2, a .528 winning percentage with draws left out, and Doosan had to reach 74-65-5 to finish above it. NC is now 60-68-2 with 14 left, so its ceiling is 74-68-2, .521. Doosan is 67-62-5 with 10 left. A 6-4 finish makes it 73-66-5, .525, which clears the line. A 5-5 finish makes it 72-67-5, .518, which does not. Doosan's two wins used up two games and two of the wins it needed, which leaves the margin where it was. The lower target is what added to it. The room for error went from three losses to four.

LG's clinch is the same arithmetic from the other side. LG is 75-55-1, the record it had on Sunday, with 13 games left. Lose all 13 and it finishes 75-68-1, .524. On Sunday that floor sat below NC's .528 ceiling, which is why LG needed one more win. Tuesday pulled NC's ceiling down to .521, under LG's floor, and the win LG was waiting for stopped mattering. LG's worst possible finish moved from sixth to fifth. Three places are now clinched, by KT (79-48-4), Samsung (77-52-3) and LG. None of them has first place settled. All three, and KIA, can still finish first.

That leaves two places, held today by KIA and Doosan. KIA's clinch number fell from five to four on Tuesday, when NC lost, and stayed at four through KIA's own 3-2 loss at Doosan on Wednesday. At 71-58-2 with 13 left, four wins make KIA 75-67-2, .528, clear of NC's ceiling. Three wins make it 74-68-2, identical to NC's ceiling, and a tie is not a clinch here. KIA can still afford nine losses, the same as on Sunday: it gave one back on the field and NC's loss returned it. Its worst reachable finish improved from eighth to seventh.

Below the line, the record that moved the chasers most was Doosan's floor, the record Doosan finishes with if it loses every remaining game. That floor is the bar each chaser has to clear, and Doosan's two wins raised it from 65-74-5 (.468) on Sunday to 67-72-5 (.482). Lotte shows the effect most plainly. It beat Hanwha 7-0 on Tuesday and 9-5 on Wednesday, its ceiling stayed at 71-71-2 because wins do not raise a ceiling, and its tragic number fell from five to three anyway. Lotte won both games and ended the two days closer to elimination. SSG lost 8-2 at home to KT and went from six to three, one for its own loss and two for Doosan's wins. NC went from nine to six by the same count, and its 10-3 win at KT on Wednesday moved none of the postseason numbers. Hanwha lost both games to Lotte and went from three to zero, out as of Wednesday. Kiwoom was already out at the September 20 update.

The tie rule decides exactly where SSG's line sits. SSG and Doosan both have five draws, so the comparison is wins against wins. SSG's ceiling is 69-70-5 and Doosan's floor is 67-72-5. Two more SSG losses would bring its ceiling to 67-72-5, the same record as Doosan's floor, and this calculation does not eliminate a club on a tie. Only a rival certainly above counts. The third loss would end it. Counted from Doosan's side, three more Doosan wins would lift its floor to 70-69-5, .504, above SSG's 69-70-5 ceiling, and SSG would be out whatever it did. They would also clear Lotte's 71-71-2 ceiling, but that ceiling is identical to KIA's floor (71-71-2), and a tie eliminates no one, so Lotte would still need one more loss of its own or a KIA win. NC's tragic number is also 6, but it is not Doosan's clinch number in reverse. NC also has to finish below KIA, and KIA's floor, 71-71-2 (.500), sits under NC's 74-68-2 ceiling, so Doosan's wins alone cannot eliminate NC.

Update, September 25: two of the Friday games named in this paragraph, Doosan-Lotte and SSG-Samsung, were cancelled, and Lotte won at LG on Thursday, so the Friday scenarios that follow did not happen. The numbers after Thursday are in the next update. Doosan's next game is Friday at home to Lotte, and it is the only game on the schedule through Saturday between one of the two clubs holding an open place and a chaser. Taken on its own, a Doosan win would cut Lotte's tragic number from three to one in a single night, since it counts once as a Lotte loss and once as a Doosan win, and would bring Doosan's clinch number to five. A Lotte win would leave both clubs' numbers where they are, with Doosan then needing six from nine. Lotte plays at LG on Thursday first, so a loss there followed by a loss at Doosan would eliminate Lotte by Friday night. SSG hosts Samsung on Thursday and again on Friday. Two SSG losses would leave it level with Doosan's floor and still alive, unless Doosan also beats Lotte on Friday, in which case SSG is out too. NC plays at KT on Thursday, then hosts Hanwha on Friday and Saturday. KIA's first game on the schedule is Saturday at home to LG, with four wins to find. Lotte hosts Hanwha on Sunday.

How to read these numbers. A clinch number is the fewest further wins that guarantee a postseason place even if every rival wins out. It is the Clinch W column on the magic number page. The Magic column there is a different count, own wins plus sixth-place losses and ties, so the two can differ. A tragic number is the further losses after which a place is impossible even if the club wins everything else, and wins by the clubs above it can bring it down as well. Zero means it is settled. Ties cut differently in each direction. For a clinch, a rival that can finish exactly level still counts as a threat, so our clinch can trail the official announcement by a day. For elimination, only a rival that is certainly above counts, which is why SSG would survive a dead heat with Doosan's floor. Official tiebreakers and the remaining head-to-head fixtures are not part of the calculation. The full table is on the magic number page, the standings at, the fixtures at, and any game still to be played can be tried either way at. The bracket and tie rules are at, the working at, and each club's own answer on its team page, /kbo/team/OB for Doosan, /kbo/team/LT for Lotte and for SSG.