KBO top five set 2026: Doosan beats NC 6-5 for the last playoff place, and KT, Samsung, LG, KIA and Doosan now race for first and Wild Card home field

On Wednesday, Doosan beat NC 6-5 at home, and that one game settled all five playoff places. Doosan clinched, and NC, Lotte and SSG were eliminated together. KT, Samsung, LG, KIA and Doosan go to the postseason, and NC, Lotte, SSG, Hanwha and Kiwoom are done after the regular season. Lotte beat Kiwoom 8-6 and SSG beat LG 4-3, but once Doosan had won, their results no longer mattered. Our last update said a Doosan win over NC on Wednesday would settle all five places that night, and it did. The same night KT won 3-2 at KIA and Samsung beat Hanwha 6-2. What is left is the order: first place goes straight to the Korean Series, and fourth hosts the Wild Card round with a one-win head start.

Every figure here uses results through Wednesday, September 30, when all five scheduled games were played, all of them now final. The figures for Thursday and Saturday results come from feeding hypothetical results into the engine that builds this site's tables. A reachable finish is a boundary set by two records, the one a club finishes with if it wins every game it has left (its ceiling) and the one it finishes with if it loses them all (its floor), and the games-left counts assume a full 144-game season. None of this is a probability.

Doosan clinched because its floor rose above the ceiling of every club outside the top five. Before Wednesday's game Doosan's floor was 68-71-5, or .489 with draws left out of the percentage, and NC's ceiling was 71-71-2 (.500). The head-to-head game moved both. Doosan is 69-63-5 with 7 left, so its floor rose to 69-70-5 (.496), and NC is 62-72-2 with 8 left, so its ceiling fell to 70-72-2 (.493). Lotte's ceiling of 70-72-2 (.493), at 61-72-2 with 9 left, and SSG's of 68-71-5 (.489), at 60-71-5 with 8 left, did not move when they won, because a ceiling already counts every remaining game as a win. Hanwha's ceiling is 62-78-4 (.443) and Kiwoom's 52-88-4 (.371). None of the five can reach Doosan's floor or even finish level with it, so Doosan stays in the top five even if it loses all 7 games it has left. The table on the magic number page is now complete: five clubs clinched, five eliminated.

The top moved too. LG's loss to SSG together with KT's win at KIA means LG can no longer finish first. LG is 75-59-1 with 9 left, and its ceiling fell from 85-58-1 (.594) to 84-59-1 (.587). KT is 83-49-4 with 8 left, and its floor rose from 82-58-4 (.586) to 83-57-4 (.593). Had LG beaten SSG or KT lost at KIA, or had both games been drawn, LG would still have had a path to first. KT's worst possible finish improved from third to second. Doosan's reachable finish narrowed from third-to-eighth to third-to-fifth. KIA lost 3-2 to KT but can still finish anywhere from second to fifth, and Samsung from first to fourth, as before. NC, Lotte, SSG and Hanwha will finish somewhere from sixth to ninth, and Kiwoom tenth.

Each place leads somewhere different. Under the format on the postseason page, first place waits in the Korean Series (best of seven) for the Playoff winner. Second waits in the Playoff (best of five) for the Semi-Playoff winner, and third waits in the Semi-Playoff (best of five) for the Wild Card winner. Fourth and fifth start in the Wild Card round: up to 2 games, all at the fourth seed's park, where fourth starts with a one-win head start and advances by winning once, while fifth must win twice. A fifth seed needs at least 12 wins to take the Korean Series. So the games left decide first place, a place in the top three that skips the Wild Card round, and fourth place, which hosts it.

Right now KT can finish first or second, Samsung first to fourth, LG second to fifth, KIA second to fifth and Doosan third to fifth. KT's floor of 83-57-4 (.593) is above LG's ceiling of 84-59-1 (.587), so KT cannot finish below second and at worst waits in the Playoff. Samsung's floor of 80-61-3 (.567) is above Doosan's ceiling of 76-63-5 (.547), so Samsung cannot finish fifth, and if it plays in the Wild Card round it hosts, with the one-win head start. Samsung's ceiling of 89-52-3 (.631) is above KT's floor, so first is still open to it. LG's ceiling is 84-59-1 (.587) and its floor 75-68-1 (.524), and KIA's ceiling is 82-60-2 (.577) and its floor 72-70-2 (.507), so either can still finish anywhere from second to fifth. KT's and Samsung's floors are above Doosan's ceiling, so Doosan can finish no higher than third, and its floor of 69-70-5 (.496) keeps it no lower than fifth. Fourth place is open to all four of Samsung, LG, KIA and Doosan, and fifth to LG, KIA and Doosan.

First place is between KT (83-49-4) and Samsung (80-52-3). LG, KIA and Doosan cannot finish first, because their ceilings are below KT's floor. If no game is drawn, KT clinches first the moment its wins and Samsung's losses add up to 6. Six more wins in KT's last 8 would lift its floor to 89-51-4 (.636), above Samsung's current ceiling of 89-52-3 (.631), while five would leave it at 88-52-4 (.629), short, and every Samsung loss lowers that ceiling and takes one win off what KT needs. Samsung, the other way, needs its wins and KT's losses to add up to 12. A game between the two counts on both sides, as a win for one and a loss for the other. They do not meet on or before Monday, October 5, and their head-to-head record and remaining meetings are on the team page. A draw also closes the gap, but by less than a win or a loss. No result on Thursday, October 1, or Saturday, October 3, settles first place. The earliest KT can clinch is Sunday, October 4: KT would have to avoid defeat at KIA on the 1st and against Lotte on the 3rd and 4th while winning at least two of the three, and Samsung would have to lose to Hanwha on the 1st and to Doosan on the 3rd and 4th.

The two can also finish level. If KT goes 4-4-0 in its last 8 and Samsung 7-1-1 in its last 9, both finish 87-53-4. A two-team tie for first is decided by a one-game tiebreaker under the KBO rules, hosted, as the postseason page says, by the club with the better head-to-head record. This site's engine does not count first place as clinched while the two can still finish level, and the 6 above is the count at which Samsung can no longer even draw level with KT. A two-team tie at any other place is decided without an extra game, by head-to-head wins, then head-to-head runs, then the previous season's finish. A tie among three or more clubs follows the tie rules on the postseason page. The engine does not work out head-to-head order.

The other places can be counted the same way, again assuming no draws. Samsung is sure to finish above KIA once its wins and KIA's losses add up to 2, and above LG once its wins and LG's losses add up to 3. Either one puts Samsung in the top three, skipping the Wild Card round, and both put it in the top two. A club certain to finish below Samsung cannot finish second. LG is sure to finish above Doosan once its wins and Doosan's losses add up to 4. LG then cannot finish below fourth, so it would host any Wild Card round it plays, and Doosan cannot reach third, so it is headed for the Wild Card round. KIA needs its wins and Doosan's losses to add up to 6 to be sure of finishing above Doosan. Head-to-head games count on both sides. Through Monday, October 5, Samsung and Doosan meet three times, as do LG and KIA, all from the 3rd to the 5th, and the fixtures after that are on the schedule page.

Thursday, October 1, has four games: Hanwha at Samsung, KT at KIA, LG at SSG and NC at Doosan. We ran all 81 results, draws included. Only Hanwha at Samsung and KT at KIA can move a top-five reachable finish that day. If KIA loses to KT and Samsung beats or draws with Hanwha, Samsung's floor rises above KIA's ceiling: a KIA loss drops its ceiling to 81-61-2 (.570), and a Samsung win lifts Samsung's floor to 81-60-3 (.574), a draw to 80-60-4 (.571). Samsung could then finish no lower than third, and KIA, now third to fifth, could no longer finish second. That happens in 18 of the 81. A draw at KIA leaves KIA's ceiling at 81-60-3, exactly Samsung's floor after a win, so the engine does not yet treat the order as settled. In the other 63, every top-five range stays as it is. LG at SSG and NC at Doosan, on Thursday alone, move no top-five range.

There are no games on Friday, October 2. Saturday, October 3, has five games: KIA at LG, Lotte at KT, Doosan at Samsung, SSG at NC and Kiwoom at Hanwha. KIA at LG, Lotte at KT and Doosan at Samsung continue at the same parks on Sunday, October 4, and Monday, October 5. We ran all nine games of Thursday and Saturday together, draws included, 19,683 combinations. No combination settles first place by Saturday night. KT stays first-or-second, Samsung keeps its path to first, and no top-five club is pinned to a single place. What can be settled by Saturday night is the first three of the four above; no combination makes KIA sure to finish above Doosan. Samsung is sure to finish above KIA in 14,094 of the 19,683: whatever KIA does if Samsung beats Hanwha and Doosan or wins one and draws one; if Samsung wins one and loses one, as long as KIA loses at least once to KT or LG or draws both; if Samsung draws both, unless KIA wins both; if Samsung draws one and loses one, as long as KIA loses at least once; and if Samsung loses both, only if KIA loses both too. Samsung is sure to finish above LG in 3,402: if Samsung wins both, one LG loss to SSG or KIA is enough; if Samsung wins one and draws one, LG must lose at least once and win neither; and if Samsung wins one and loses one or draws both, LG must lose both. If Samsung draws one and loses one, or loses both, it cannot happen. Both together, which put Samsung in the top two, come in 2,997. LG is sure to finish above Doosan in only 1,215: LG has to beat SSG and KIA and Doosan has to lose to NC and Samsung, with at most one of the four drawn. If all four go that way, LG's floor is 77-66-1 (.538) and Doosan's ceiling 74-65-5 (.532). In 5,157 none of the three is settled and every top-five range stays as it is. KIA and Doosan cannot be sure of a top-four finish by Saturday night whatever happens.

Update, October 3: On Thursday Samsung beat Hanwha 3-2, KT won 7-5 at KIA, SSG beat LG 6-5 and Doosan beat NC 9-7. Of the 81 combinations above, that is the branch in which KIA lost to KT and Samsung won. As set out here, Samsung's floor of 81-60-3 (.574) rose above KIA's ceiling of 81-61-2 (.570), so Samsung could no longer finish below third, and KIA was left with third to fifth. On Saturday KIA won 5-4 at LG, KT beat Lotte 5-0, Samsung beat Doosan 6-4, NC beat SSG 13-1 and Kiwoom won 7-2 at Hanwha. Samsung beat both Hanwha and Doosan and LG lost to both SSG and KIA, so, as this piece said, Samsung is now also sure to finish above LG and has a top-two finish. First place, as it said, was not settled by Saturday. Samsung's wins on the 1st and 3rd removed the branch in which KT could clinch first on Sunday, October 4, and LG's two losses ruled out LG making sure of finishing above Doosan by Saturday. KT and Samsung now hold first and second between them, and LG, KIA and Doosan third to fifth. The numbers from here are in the next update.

How to read these numbers. A reachable finish is a boundary set by ceilings and floors: the best finish assumes a club wins every game it has left while its rivals lose theirs, and the worst the reverse. A club that can only draw level is not counted above you when finding your best finish, and is counted above you when finding your worst, so every count in this piece is the point at which a rival can no longer even finish level. Tie order decided by head-to-head records is left out. The standings show each club's reachable finish, the magic number page the clinched and eliminated table, the fixtures the games left, the postseason page the bracket and tie rules, and the methodology page the working behind every figure. The what-if page lets you set any game still to be played. Each club's answer is on its team page: KT, Samsung, LG, KIA, Doosan, NC, Lotte, SSG.