Champions League October 14 fixtures - what each of the nine results does to the top 24

Sixteen clubs are tied at the top of the Champions League league phase on three points, and nobody in the competition has more. Six of them play on October 14 KST (13 October in Europe): Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Manchester United, Sporting CP, Lens and Arsenal. Dates in this piece are Korean time. One point takes any of those six to four, a total no club has reached yet, and a win takes them to six.

The table was last updated on September 11 and carries results through that date and nothing after: one match for each of the 36 clubs, 18 matches in all. None of the nine fixtures listed for October 14 has been played. Each result below is read on its own, with the other eight of that day set aside, because that is the only honest way to say what a single match does.

Sixteen clubs are on three points, four are on one, and sixteen are on zero. Every club has seven matches left, so every club still has 21 points available to it. The bar for a guaranteed top 24 place is 22. A club on three points needs 19 of its remaining 21, and 19 from seven matches means six wins and a draw at the absolute minimum. A club on one point needs all 21. A club on zero cannot reach 22 at all, so that column is blank for it. Sixteen clubs cannot guarantee a top 24 place by their own results no matter what they do from here.

The other columns are emptier still. No club in the competition carries a clinch number for the top eight, and none carries one for finishing first either. Seven wins from here would take a club on three points to 24, and fifteen other clubs can reach that same 24, so nothing is locked. On the losing side, the twenty clubs on one point or zero carry a tragic number of seven for the top eight and seven for first place, which is their entire remaining schedule. The sixteen clubs that won their opening match carry no tragic number at all. The elimination side is blank for all 36. Every club can still reach first and every club can still finish 36th.

The top 24 go through to the playoff round and 25th to 36th are out. Slavia Prague hold the 24th place, the last one above that line, on zero points. They are joint 22nd with Club Brugge and Lille and listed after them alphabetically, and the twelve clubs below them are on zero points as well. The table separates clubs on equal points by goal difference, but the clinch and tragic arithmetic does not use goal difference, and it does not use head to head records or the official tiebreakers either, so the order inside a block of clubs on the same points is not something it defends. What it counts is points. One point taken by any club below Slavia, on a night when Slavia take none, puts that club ahead of them on points and Slavia below the line.

Seven of those twelve clubs play on October 14. Atletico Madrid and Inter, joint 25th, host Manchester United and Club Brugge, Galatasaray and Viking, joint 29th, host Barcelona and Bayern Munich, RB Leipzig in 32nd host PSV Eindhoven, and Napoli, joint 27th, travel to Villarreal. Sabah in 34th host Slavia themselves. The six other than Sabah can pass Slavia without facing them, and a draw is enough for any of the six provided Slavia lose at Sabah. The five below the line who are not playing on the 14th, LASK, Porto, Feyenoord, Slovan Bratislava and Bodo/Glimt, stay on zero for one night only, because all five are out on October 15. The three clubs on zero who currently sit above the line alongside Slavia, Villarreal in 21st and Club Brugge and Lille, joint 22nd with Slavia, are all in action on the 14th too.

Slavia's own fixture is at Sabah, and it is the only one of the nine where their place is in their own hands. A win takes them to three points, level with the sixteen clubs that share the lead today. A draw takes them to one, level with the four clubs on one point, and it takes Sabah to one as well. A defeat leaves them on zero with six matches left and every club that took a point that night above them.

Nine matches are played on Wednesday, October 14 KST, which is the evening of Tuesday 13 October in Europe. Galatasaray host Barcelona, Inter host Club Brugge, Villarreal host Napoli, Sabah host Slavia Prague, Viking host Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid host Manchester United, Arsenal host Lille, RB Leipzig host PSV Eindhoven, and Lens host Sporting CP. That is 18 of the 36 clubs, exactly half the round, and the other nine matches are on October 15 KST (14 October in Europe). Six clubs on three points are in action, and each of them needs one point to reach four and a win to reach six. Lens, who beat Slavia 3-2 on the opening matchday, host Sporting CP, so a draw at Lens sends both of them to four on the same night. PSV are joint 19th on one point and need a win to reach four. PSG hold first place and are not among the nine; they play at Manchester City on the 15th.

A clinch number is the least a club must still add for an outcome to be guaranteed even if every rival wins everything left. A tragic number is the number of further losses after which the outcome is impossible even if that club wins everything else. Best and worst are the highest and lowest finishes still arithmetically reachable. A blank means the arithmetic has produced no number in that direction. Ties are counted against the club being measured. On the clinch side that means a rival who can climb to exactly level is counted as a threat, which is why the guarantee bar sits at 22 points and not 21, and why our clinch can lag an official announcement by a day. On the elimination side only a rival who can finish strictly above counts, so being matched is not enough to put a club out. The full table is on the league phase page, the fixture list on the schedule page, the qualification and elimination rules on the postseason page, the clinch and tragic columns on the magic number page, the method behind them on the methodology page, and individual scorelines can be run on the scenario page. Club pages follow the pattern /ucl/team/7332 for Slavia Prague and /ucl/team/26342 for Lens.