Champions League October 14 fixtures - eight matches and what each one does to the table

Arsenal are 15th of 36 in the Champions League league phase and a single point on October 14 would put them top of it. No club in the competition has more than three points. Arsenal have three, from a 1-0 win that was one of only two 1-0 results in the round, AEK Athens in 16th holding the other. A draw at home to Lille takes Arsenal to four and past everyone above them. That is what one matchday of eight is worth: the whole 36-club table sits inside one result of itself.

Every figure here comes from the September 11 update, the most recent results in our file, covering the 18 matches played. The file lists eight fixtures for Wednesday, October 14. That is 16 of the 36 clubs, not a full round. Each result below is read on its own, with the other seven fixtures of that day set aside, because that is the only honest way to say what one match does. Nothing that has not been played is counted.

Sixteen clubs are on zero points, and the order through the bottom half is not a points order at all. Eight clubs lost by a single goal, all eight carry a goal difference of minus one, and they fill 21st to 28th split by goals scored alone: Villarreal, Lille, Club Brugge and Slavia Prague on two goals, Atletico Madrid and Inter on one, Napoli and LASK on none. The top 24 go into the playoff round and 25th to 36th are out, so the elimination line currently runs between Slavia in 24th and Atletico in 25th. Slavia's hold on it is not a gap. Villarreal, Lille and Brugge sit on the identical zero points and the identical 2-3, and a single result moves any of them past. Nothing is settled on October 14 either. Every club in these eight fixtures has seven matches left, a best reachable finish of first and a worst of 36th, and the smallest tragic number anywhere in the field is seven, the entire remaining schedule.

Atletico Madrid, 25th, host Manchester United, fourth, and every result moves the elimination line. A 1-0 Atletico win takes them from 25th to 17th and drops Slavia Prague from 24th to 25th, below the line. A draw does most of the same work: Atletico climb to 21st on the point, Slavia still falls to 25th, and United reach four points and lead the table outright. Only a United win leaves Slavia in 24th, and it sends Atletico to 28th with Inter taking 25th. Put plainly, Atletico take anything at all and Slavia drop out of the surviving 24.

Inter, 26th, host Club Brugge, 23rd, and the same line runs between them. Both are on zero with a goal difference of minus one, and Brugge are three places higher only because they scored two in defeat where Inter scored one. A draw leaves their order with each other untouched, 0-0 keeping it at two goals to one and 1-1 at three to two, but it is the result that moves the cut line most. A point each lifts both above the four clubs still on zero and minus one, sending Brugge to 21st and Inter to 22nd, pushing Villarreal to 23rd and Lille to 24th, and dropping Slavia Prague to 25th with Atletico 26th. A 1-0 Inter win instead takes Inter to 17th and Brugge to 28th. The same scoreline the other way takes Brugge to 17th and Inter to 28th.

Villarreal host Napoli, 21st against 27th, the same minus one on both sides with six places of goals scored between them, two against none. Napoli's empty scoring column comes from the 1-0 Arsenal won at their ground. A draw there moves Napoli from 27th to 22nd and leaves Villarreal exactly where it found them in 21st, and it too pushes Slavia to 25th. A 1-0 Villarreal win makes it 17th and 30th; the same score for Napoli makes it 17th and 28th. Sabah host Slavia Prague, 34th against 24th, and it is the one fixture where Slavia's place is in Slavia's own hands. A Slavia win takes them to 17th and leaves Brugge 24th and above the line. A draw takes Slavia to 21st and pushes Brugge to 25th instead. A 1-0 Sabah win takes Sabah from 34th to 17th and Slavia from 24th to 29th.

Five clubs in these eight fixtures can end October 14 in first place, because nobody is further ahead than three points. Bayern Munich at Viking, Barcelona at Galatasaray and Manchester United at Atletico each need one point to reach four and go top. Arsenal need the same at home to Lille. PSV Eindhoven, 18th on a single point, need a win at RB Leipzig and would go from 18th to first. The other side of those matches moves a long way too. A 1-0 Viking win carries Viking from 30th to 17th, a 1-0 Galatasaray win carries Galatasaray from 29th to 17th and knocks Barcelona to fourth, a Leipzig win lifts Leipzig from 32nd to 17th and drops PSV to 21st, and a Lille win at Arsenal sends Lille to 16th and Arsenal to 17th. PSG, first on goals scored ahead of Bayern's identical plus five, are not in the eight fixtures our file carries for October 14.

How to read these numbers. A clinch number, also called a magic number, is the least a club must still add to make an outcome certain even if every rival wins everything left. A tragic number is the number of further defeats after which the outcome is impossible even if that club wins everything else. A blank means the arithmetic has not produced a number yet. Ties are counted against the club being measured, so a clinch here can lag an official announcement by a day. Figures for all 36 clubs are on the league phase page, the rest of the fixture list is on the schedule page, the qualification and elimination rules are on the postseason page, and individual scorelines can be run on the scenario page. Club pages follow the pattern /ucl/team/26305 for Atletico Madrid and /ucl/team/7332 for Slavia Prague.