NFL playoff picture after Week 9: New England and Cleveland lose, so 14-3 is now enough for an AFC wild card too, Minnesota loses to Buffalo and hands the NFC North lead to Chicago, 3-5 Carolina loses its clinch number, and nobody can clinch in Week 10

The AFC bar came down. A week ago an AFC club needed 15-2 to be sure of a wild card. After Week 9, 14-3 is enough, because New England and Cleveland both lost and can no longer reach 14-3. The NFC bar was already 14-3, so both conferences now ask for the same record. That moved every number at the top of the AFC. Buffalo won at Minnesota to go 7-1 and came down from 9 to 7, Denver won to go 7-2 and also came down from 9 to 7, Kansas City and Cincinnati won to go 6-2 and dropped from 10 to 8, and Pittsburgh went from 9 to 8 during its bye. In the NFC, Minnesota's home loss to Buffalo left it 6-2 and handed the North lead to 7-2 Chicago; its clinch number stayed at 8, but it lost its division number. Carolina lost to fall to 3-5 and gave up its clinch number of 10, though it still leads the South. Twelve clubs hold a clinch number, six in each conference, down from thirteen.

Every figure here is from the table at the end of Week 9, as of Tuesday, November 10 in Korea, with all 15 games final. Pittsburgh and Tennessee had the bye. None of Week 10's 14 games is in these numbers. Buffalo and San Francisco share the best record at 7-1, and the Chargers, 0-8, are still the only winless club. The worst case behind a clinch number has every rival win every game it has left, without checking whether those rivals play each other, and a level finish is always scored against the club being asked about.

The Week 9 scores, by US date. Thursday, November 5: Jacksonville won 33-10 at Baltimore. Sunday, November 8: Cincinnati won 34-17 at Atlanta, Dallas won 27-23 at Indianapolis, Kansas City beat the Jets 35-12, Detroit won 19-9 at Miami, New Orleans beat Cleveland 23-22, the Giants won 19-11 at Philadelphia, the Rams won 20-13 at Washington, Denver won 26-21 at Carolina, Houston won 44-22 at the Chargers, San Francisco beat Las Vegas 38-17, Green Bay won 45-27 at New England, Seattle beat Arizona 17-3 and Chicago beat Tampa Bay 27-24. Monday, November 9: Buffalo won 23-6 at Minnesota. The widest margins were Jacksonville's and Kansas City's 23 points, and New Orleans won by one. Every result is on the schedule page.

Four clubs can lose twice and still clinch without help: Buffalo, Jacksonville, San Francisco and the Giants, each with a clinch number of 7 and 9 games left. Buffalo and the Giants joined that group this week, and Minnesota left it. Seven clubs can afford one loss: Denver and Chicago at 7 with 8 left, and Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Detroit and Minnesota at 8 with 9 left. That makes 11 clubs with at least a game to spare, up from seven. Only Green Bay, at 8 with 8 left, holds a number equal to every game it has left, so it must win out to clinch on its own; a week ago six clubs were in that spot.

Why the AFC numbers moved. Six AFC clubs can still reach 15-2 or better: Buffalo at 16-1, and Denver, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Cincinnati at 15-2. New England and Cleveland both lost and now top out at 13-4, and Las Vegas, Baltimore and Houston top out at 12-5. So a club from the six that reaches 14-3 has at most the other five level with it or above it, and seven clubs make the field: 14-3 is enough. At 13-4, New England and Cleveland would join the crowd and it would not be. That is Buffalo's 7 of 9, Denver's 7 of 8, and Pittsburgh's, Kansas City's and Cincinnati's 8 of 9. Buffalo's 7 is also its division number, because New England's ceiling is 13-4. Jacksonville's 7 is a division number with a lower target: 13-4 wins the South, since Houston tops out at 12-5 and Indianapolis and Tennessee at 10-7. The West and the North still have no division number: Denver and Kansas City can both reach 15-2, and so can Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, and a level finish counts against the club being asked about. Kansas City and Cincinnati also lost the tragic number of 10 they had a week ago. With six wins each, even if they lost every game left and every rival lost too, only five other AFC clubs would be level with them or above, so the arithmetic can no longer shut them out.

Why the NFC numbers moved. The NFC bar stays at 14-3. Six NFC clubs can reach it: San Francisco at 16-1, Chicago, Detroit and Minnesota at 15-2, the Giants at 14-2-1 and Green Bay at 14-3. Seattle and the Rams top out at 13-4, and Dallas, Carolina and New Orleans at 12-5. A club at 14-3 has at most five rivals level with it or above it, and the South's leader, which finishes below it, takes one more place; that makes six, so 14-3 is enough, and at 13-4 Seattle and the Rams would join the crowd. That is San Francisco's and Chicago's 7, and Detroit's, Minnesota's and Green Bay's 8. Minnesota lost and its number did not move, because 6-2 plus eight wins is still 14-3; the loss cost it a spare game instead. It did lose the division number of 10 it held a week ago: Minnesota now tops out at 15-2, the same as Chicago and Detroit, so nobody in the North can be sure of the division. San Francisco's 7 is also its division number, as Seattle and the Rams top out at 13-4. The Giants' 7 is a division number that came down by two: one for their own win, and one because Washington lost and now tops out at 11-5-1, so 12-4-1 is enough to finish ahead of Washington and of Dallas's ceiling of 12-5. Carolina lost its 10. It and New Orleans are both 3-5 with a ceiling of 12-5, and a level finish counts against the club being asked about, so neither can be sure of the South.

If the season ended today, the AFC field would be the same seven as a week ago: Buffalo, Denver, Jacksonville and Pittsburgh as division leaders, seeded in that order, Kansas City, Cincinnati and New England as the wild cards, and Cleveland first out. Only Jacksonville and Pittsburgh have swapped third and fourth. Buffalo would have the bye, and the wild-card round would be Denver against New England, Jacksonville against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh against Kansas City. The NFC's seven are also the same as a week ago: San Francisco, Chicago, the Giants and Carolina as division leaders, Detroit, Minnesota and Green Bay as the wild cards, and Seattle first out. Chicago has taken the North lead and the second seed from Minnesota, which drops to sixth, and all three NFC wild cards come from the North. Carolina leads the South at 3-5 and would be the fourth seed, although nine NFC clubs have a better record. San Francisco would have the bye, and the games would be Chicago against Green Bay, the Giants against Minnesota and Carolina against Detroit. Clubs with equal records are put in the order of the playoff seed listed by our data provider, BALLDONTLIE; we do not compute the league's tiebreakers ourselves. Jacksonville ahead of Pittsburgh and Kansas City ahead of Cincinnati at 6-2, New England ahead of Cleveland at 5-4, Detroit ahead of Minnesota at 6-2, Seattle ahead of the Rams at 5-4 and Carolina ahead of New Orleans at 3-5 follow that ordering.

At the bottom, the Chargers at 0-8 have the smallest tragic number, 4. The Jets, Indianapolis, Miami, Tennessee, Arizona and Philadelphia have 5, and Washington has 6. Las Vegas, Baltimore, Houston, Seattle, the Rams and Dallas have 7; New England, Cleveland, Tampa Bay and Atlanta have 8; and Carolina and New Orleans have 9. Seattle, the Rams and Dallas all won and their tragic numbers still fell from 8 to 7. For Seattle and the Rams the reason is in the North: Detroit and Green Bay won, so even if every rival lost out, the three North clubs that do not lead the division would each have six wins and fill the three wild-card places, and San Francisco already has seven wins in the West. To keep a path open they now need to reach seven wins, not six. Dallas now needs six wins, not five, because the Giants won and moved to 5-2-1. Our Week 8 piece said Week 9 could not put a zero anywhere, and it did not: nothing is clinched and nobody is eliminated. The Chargers lost and came down to 4, and Tennessee had the bye and stayed at 5. The same holds for Week 10. Give any club a win and every other club in its conference a loss, and the smallest clinch number anywhere is 5, for Buffalo, Denver, Jacksonville, San Francisco, Chicago and the Giants. Give it a loss and every rival a win, and the smallest tragic number is 2, the Chargers'. The what-if page lets you pick results within each conference and watch the order move.

How to read these numbers. A clinch number, also called a magic number, is the fewest further wins that guarantee a place even if every rival wins every game it has left. A tragic number is the further losses after which a place is impossible even if the club wins everything else and every rival loses. Zero means it is done, and a blank means the arithmetic cannot settle it yet. A tie counts as half a win in the record, as in the league table. A level finish is scored against the club being asked about in both directions, so a clinch here can come later than the league's own announcement. The official tiebreakers and the question of who plays whom are not part of the calculation. Every club's numbers are on the magic numbers page, the seeding and tiebreaker order on the playoff page, the conference tables on the standings page, and the working on the methodology page. Club pages: Buffalo, Minnesota, New England, Cleveland, Carolina and Green Bay.