NFL 2026
How we compute it
Arithmetic, not probability: the fewest wins that lock a place whatever rivals do, and who is already out. Early on, nobody can clinch.
- 1Seven playoff spots per conference: the four division winners first, then the three best remaining records as wild cards.
- 2The magic number assumes every other team wins all remaining games, and is the minimum wins that still put you in the seven.
- 3Elimination means you miss the seven even if you win out and everyone else loses out. The tragic number is the losses left until that state.
- 4Ties always go against the team in question. Official tiebreakers (head-to-head, division and common-opponent records) are not applied, so these numbers are conservative.
- 5A tie game counts as half a win, as in the official NFL win percentage. Data: licensed from BALLDONTLIE, refreshed periodically; times in KST.
Frequently asked questions
Does seventh in the conference mean a playoff place?
No. Division winners are seeded regardless of record, so a team with a better record can still miss out on a wild card.
Do these numbers use the official tiebreakers?
No. They use win percentage and games left only, and ties are resolved against the team in question, so a clinch may show later here than officially. Head-to-head and division records are not modelled.