NFL playoff picture after Week 5: five teams can afford a loss, the Giants' tie was worth a game, and nobody can clinch in Week 6

Five clubs can now lose a game and still clinch a playoff place without help, up from three after Week 4. Kansas City, 4-0 after its bye, has a clinch number of 12 with 13 games left. San Francisco and Minnesota, both 5-0, Jacksonville at 4-1 and the Giants at 3-1-1 each have 11 with 12 left. Jacksonville and the Giants are new to that list, and the Giants got there with a 27-27 tie in Washington, the first tie of the season. Clubs that can clinch by winning out fell from eleven to eight. Cleveland, Las Vegas, Chicago and Seattle lost and lost their clinch numbers, and Carolina picked one up during its bye. The table still splits at one line, with one exception. Every club at 4-1 or better, and the Giants, has a clinch number and no tragic number. Every club at 3-2 or worse has a tragic number and no clinch number, except Carolina, which leads the NFC South at 2-2 and has both.

Every figure here is from the table at the end of Week 5, which closed with Buffalo's 37-34 win over the Rams on Monday night, Tuesday, October 13 in Korea. All 15 games are final. Kansas City and Carolina had the bye, so they have played four games and have 13 left; the other 30 clubs have played five and have 12 left. The league has split two at 5-0, Kansas City at 4-0, three at 4-1, the Giants at 3-1-1, ten at 3-2, Carolina at 2-2, six at 2-3, Washington at 1-3-1, four at 1-4 and three at 0-5. No Week 6 game is in these numbers. The worst case behind a clinch number has every rival win every game it has left, without checking whether those rivals are scheduled to meet each other, and a level finish is always scored against the club being asked about.

Each of the five has a division it can win outright one game short of the maximum. Jacksonville beat Philadelphia 19-17 in London while Indianapolis lost 22-34 in Pittsburgh. Now nobody else in the AFC South can reach 15-2: Indianapolis, at 2-3, tops out at 14-3. So 15-2, eleven more wins, takes the division, and Jacksonville's clinch number and division number are both 11. Kansas City's 12 works the same way one game higher. At 16-1 the Chiefs win the West, because Denver and Las Vegas, both 3-2, can only reach 15-2. San Francisco and Minnesota won 32-29 in Seattle and 23-13 in New Orleans, and at 16-1 each wins its division, because Seattle and the three other NFC North clubs, Green Bay, Detroit and Chicago, are all 3-2. Baltimore and Buffalo, also 4-1, still need all 12. Baltimore won 30-23 in Atlanta and Buffalo won at the Rams, but at 15-2 Cleveland, Pittsburgh or Cincinnati could take the North and New England the East on the tie. Six AFC clubs at 3-2 would then be chasing three wild-card places at 15-2, and the ties go to them. Both clubs' division numbers are 12 as well.

The Giants' tie was worth exactly one game. At 3-1-1 with 12 left, 11 more wins make 14-2-1, and that is better than anything Philadelphia or Dallas, both 2-3 after losing, or Washington, now 1-3-1, can still reach: 14-3, 14-3 and 13-3-1. So 11 wins take the East and with it a place. Put a loss in Washington instead of the tie and the same engine gives the Giants 12 and 12, because 14-3 at 3-2 could be matched by Philadelphia or Dallas. Put in a win and it still gives 11 and 11, so the tie did everything a win would have done for the Giants' numbers. Carolina's numbers moved without a game. Atlanta lost to Baltimore, so the Panthers, 2-2 with 13 left, would take the South at 15-2, since Atlanta, at 2-3, can only reach 14-3. Carolina's clinch number, division number and tragic number are all 13, its whole remaining schedule.

Ten clubs are at 3-2 and none of them has a clinch number. In the AFC there are six: New England, which beat Las Vegas 45-17, Denver, 23-17 winners over the Chargers, Cincinnati, 31-24 winners in Miami, Pittsburgh, and Las Vegas and Cleveland, which lost 12-17 to the Jets. Kansas City, Baltimore, Jacksonville and Buffalo can each still reach 16-1 or better, so at 15-2 the six would be competing for three wild-card places with the ties against them. In the NFC there are four, Green Bay, which beat Chicago 31-7, Detroit, 45-21 winners in Arizona, and Chicago and Seattle. San Francisco, Minnesota, the Giants and Carolina can each finish ahead of them or win a division they cannot reach, which leaves four clubs at 15-2 for three places. Each of the ten has a tragic number of 12.

If the season ended today, the AFC's division leaders would be Kansas City, Baltimore, Jacksonville and Buffalo, seeded in that order, with New England, Denver and Las Vegas as the wild cards and Cleveland first out. Kansas City would have the bye, and the wild-card round would be Baltimore against Las Vegas, Jacksonville against Denver and Buffalo against New England. The NFC's would be San Francisco, Minnesota, the Giants and Carolina, with Green Bay, Detroit and Chicago as the wild cards and Seattle first out. San Francisco would have the bye, and the games would be Minnesota against Chicago, the Giants against Detroit and Carolina against Green Bay. Equal records in these lists are ordered by ESPN's seeding, which applies the league's tiebreakers; we do not compute the tiebreakers ourselves. That is how Las Vegas, after two straight losses, holds the seventh place ahead of Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, and how San Francisco is ahead of Minnesota at 5-0. Carolina is the fourth seed at 2-2 because division leaders take the first four places whatever their record.

At the bottom the line has moved. After Week 4 a club was finished at its 15th loss. Now it is finished at its 14th, even if it wins every other game and every rival loses out, everywhere except the NFC South. That gives 12 for the ten 3-2 clubs, 11 for the 2-3 clubs and Washington, 10 for Houston and Arizona at 1-4, and 9 for Miami, the Chargers and Tennessee at 0-5. The NFC South has its extra game back. Its leaders have two wins each, so a South club could still take the division at 3-14, and its clubs carry one more than everyone else with their records: Atlanta 12 at 2-3, Tampa Bay and New Orleans 11 at 1-4.

Week 6 cannot put a zero anywhere either. No clinch number can fall below 9 and no tragic number below 7, so nobody clinches and nobody is eliminated. Cincinnati, Miami, Detroit and Minnesota have the bye. Every line below was checked against all 6,561 ways the eight games touching each conference can end, ties included, and a tie counts as not winning. The AFC turns on one count: how many of the five 3-2 clubs in action win. Denver is home to Seattle in Thursday night's opener, New England is home to the Jets, Cleveland to Baltimore and Las Vegas to Buffalo, and Pittsburgh goes to Tampa Bay. None of them plays another, so all five can win. Each of the five picks up a clinch number of 11, its whole remaining schedule, by winning if no more than two of the five win; with three or more winners, none does. A loss takes its tragic number to 11, or to 10 if three or more of the other four win. Cincinnati, idle, keeps 12 as both its clinch and tragic number if no more than two win; if three or more do, it loses the clinch number and its tragic number falls to 11. Baltimore, at Cleveland, goes to 10 with a win, or 11 if three or more of the five win, and its division number becomes 11 either way. A loss leaves 11 if no more than two of the five win and takes the clinch number away if three or more do, and the division number goes too. Kansas City, home to the Chargers, goes to 10 with a win and 11 with a loss, one more in each case if three or more of the five win and Denver or Las Vegas is among them. A loss with four or more winners also gives the Chiefs a tragic number of 12. Their division number goes to 10 with a win and 11 with a loss, one more if Denver or Las Vegas wins. Buffalo, in Las Vegas, has the same shape with New England. A win takes both numbers to 10 if New England does not beat the Jets. If New England wins, the division number is 11 and the clinch number 10, or 11 when three or more of the five win. A loss leaves both on 11 if New England does not win; if it does, the division number goes, and the clinch number stays on 11 only if no more than two of the five win. Jacksonville's two numbers move together and depend only on Indianapolis. Against Houston at Wembley Stadium in London on Sunday, October 18, a win takes both to 9, or 10 if Indianapolis beats Tennessee, and a loss takes both to 10, or 11 if Indianapolis wins.

The NFC turns on a smaller count: how many of the three 3-2 clubs in action win. Green Bay is home to Dallas on Sunday night, Chicago goes to Atlanta and Seattle to Denver. Each of the three picks up a clinch number of 11, its whole remaining schedule, with a win unless all three win, and a loss takes its tragic number to 11. Detroit, idle, keeps 12 as both numbers unless all three win; then it loses the clinch number and its tragic number falls to 11. Minnesota's clinch number goes to 10 during its bye, or 11 if all three win, and its division number stays on 11. San Francisco, home to Washington on Monday night, goes to 9 with a win and 10 with a loss, both numbers together. If Seattle wins in Denver, the 49ers' division number is one higher, and if Green Bay and Chicago win as well, so is the clinch number. The Giants, home to New Orleans, go to 10 with a win and 11 with a loss, both numbers together, each one lower if Philadelphia and Dallas both lose and Washington does not win in San Francisco. Carolina, at Philadelphia, turns on Atlanta. A win takes the Panthers' clinch and division numbers to 11 and removes the tragic number if Atlanta does not beat Chicago; if Atlanta wins too, all three stay on 12, the whole remaining schedule. A loss leaves 12, 12 and 12 if Atlanta does not win. If Atlanta wins, Carolina loses both numbers and has a tragic number of 11. The Week 6 fixtures are on the schedule page, and the what-if page lets you pick results for upcoming games within each conference and watch the record order move.

How to read these numbers. A clinch number, also called a magic number, is the fewest further wins that guarantee a place even if every rival wins every game it has left. A tragic number is the further losses after which a place is impossible even if the club wins everything else and every rival loses. Zero means it is done, and a blank means the arithmetic cannot settle it yet. A tie counts as half a win in the record, as in the league table. A level finish is scored against the club being asked about in both directions, so a clinch here can come later than the league's own announcement and an elimination can be declared on a tie alone. The official tiebreakers and the question of who plays whom are not part of the calculation. Every club's numbers are on the magic numbers page, the seeding and tiebreaker order on the playoff page, the conference tables on the standings page, and the working on the methodology page. The five clubs that can afford a loss have their own pages: Kansas City, San Francisco, Minnesota, Jacksonville and the Giants.