LaLiga after the October round: Barcelona eight from eight, the top-four bar down from 107 to 105, nothing clinched

Barcelona beat Getafe 3-0 at home on October 11 and have won all eight of their matches: 24 points, 34 goals scored and seven conceded. Atlético Madrid, Real Betis and Real Madrid all won too, so the gaps at the top did not move. Barcelona are five clear of Atlético and Betis on 19 and six clear of Real Madrid on 18, exactly as before the break. What did move is the line all four are chasing. The total that guarantees a top-four finish fell from 107 points to 105, because Sevilla drew 3-3 at Levante on October 13. Nothing is clinched, nothing is eliminated, and every one of the 20 clubs can still finish anywhere from first to twentieth.

Every figure here comes from the October 13 update, with 78 of the season's 380 matches played. The round ran from October 10 to 13, Korean time, home side first. October 10: Málaga 1-1 Espanyol, Alavés 1-2 Atlético Madrid. October 11: Barcelona 3-0 Getafe, Real Sociedad 3-2 Deportivo La Coruña, Elche 0-0 Celta Vigo, Real Madrid 1-0 Villarreal. October 12: Racing Santander 2-2 Valencia, Real Betis 5-2 Osasuna. October 13: Levante 3-3 Sevilla. That is nine results, not ten. Rayo Vallecano against Athletic Club, which our September 20 pieces listed for October 10, has no result in this update. Rayo have still played seven matches and Athletic Club six, the same counts as on September 21, and the fixture is not among the ten listed for October 17 to 20. The other 18 clubs have played eight and have 30 left. Rayo have 31 left and Athletic Club 32.

The four top-four lines fell by five points each. Barcelona's went from 86 to 81, Atlético's and Betis's from 91 to 86, and Real Madrid's from 92 to 87. Three of those five points are the win each club banked. The other two are the bar coming down. Add each line to its club's total and the answer is 105 every time: 24 plus 81, 19 plus 86, 18 plus 87. Barcelona can drop nine of their remaining 90 points and still get there, Atlético and Betis four, Real Madrid three.

The bar is one point above the fifth-highest ceiling in the division, because a club that can only draw level still counts as a threat. Before the round that ceiling was Sevilla's 106, 13 points plus 31 matches. Sevilla's draw left them on 14 points with 30 to play, a ceiling of 104, and Athletic Club, on 8 points with 32 matches left, have the same 104. One above that is 105. Our September 20 piece on the Madrid derby said that, taken on its own, a Sevilla draw or defeat at Levante would bring the bar down to 105 for all four clubs, and that is what happened. Put a Sevilla win in place of the draw, keep the other eight results, and the engine returns 107 and lines of 83, 88, 88 and 89. That is why Atlético's line is 86 rather than the 88 our September 20 explainer gave for an Atlético win at Alavés. Put a Sevilla defeat in its place instead and nothing changes, because Athletic Club's 104 would still set the bar at 105.

Sevilla's own cell is still empty, and further from filling. Their bar is set by the four ceilings above them, Barcelona 114, Atlético 109, Betis 109 and Real Madrid 108, so it is still 109. Their ceiling fell from 106 to 104, so they are now five short where on September 21 they were three short. Our September 20 piece on Sevilla said a number would appear there only after a Real Madrid defeat by Villarreal, and would stay only if Sevilla then won at Levante. Real Madrid won 1-0, and Sevilla drew. Sevilla's top-four tragic number went from 31 to 29, against 30 matches left. Real Sociedad beat Deportivo 3-2 and are sixth on 13 points, one behind Sevilla, also with a top-four tragic number of 29.

Barcelona still hold the only title clinch number in the division. It went from 89 to 86, and it still points at a final total of 110, one above the 109 that Atlético and Betis can reach by winning everything they have left. Eighty-six from 90 means Barcelona can drop four points. Atlético, Betis and Real Madrid each carry a title tragic number of 29 against 30 matches left, and the lowest in the division belong to Valencia and Málaga at 24.

At the bottom, all three clubs in the relegation places drew, each against one of the clubs that were on seven points. Málaga drew 1-1 with Espanyol and are still the only club without a win, four draws and four defeats, with four goals scored. Elche drew 0-0 with Celta Vigo, and Valencia drew 2-2 at Racing Santander. The safety total for the 17 clubs that have one fell from 99 to 97, from Barcelona's 73 to Levante's 91, and Celta, Espanyol and Racing went from 92 to 89. That 97 is one above the third-lowest ceiling in the division, which is Elche's 96, behind Valencia's 95 and Málaga's 94. The three clubs at the bottom cannot count themselves, so each of them faces 99, and each is short by the same margin as on September 21: Elche by three, Valencia by four, Málaga by five. Our September 20 explainer said an Elche win over Celta would open Elche's safety column at 90. The engine agrees that it would have, and the 0-0 left it blank.

Valencia and Málaga still carry the only relegation tragic numbers, 30 each, which is every match they have left. Elche still have none. Lose all 30 and they finish on six points, and only the 16 clubs on eight or more are certain to finish above that. Levante, level with them on six, do not count, because drawing level is not enough to put a club below them. Relegation takes 17.

Nothing is settled anywhere. No club has a zero in any column, and every club's reachable range is still first to twentieth. The counts are the same as on September 21: four top-four clinch numbers, one title clinch number, 17 safety numbers, 16 top-four tragic numbers and two relegation tragic numbers. The next round cannot change that. Run all 59,049 combinations of its ten results through the engine and no clinch number reaches zero, no tragic number reaches zero or falls below 22, and every reachable range still reads first to twentieth.

The next round runs from October 17 to 20, Korean time, home side first. October 17: Espanyol against Atlético Madrid, Villarreal against Elche, Deportivo La Coruña against Levante. October 18: Real Betis against Barcelona, Osasuna against Racing Santander, Valencia against Athletic Club, Celta Vigo against Alavés. October 19: Málaga against Real Sociedad, Real Madrid against Sevilla. October 20: Getafe against Rayo Vallecano. Villarreal against Elche settles two cells by itself. An Elche win puts a safety number in Elche's column in every combination of the other nine results, and any other result leaves it blank. A Villarreal defeat in the same match removes Villarreal's own safety number of 89 in every combination. Celta, Espanyol, Getafe, Racing and Osasuna keep their safety numbers with a win or a draw whatever happens elsewhere; after a defeat it depends on the other results.

How to read these numbers. A clinch number is the minimum further points that guarantee an outcome even if every rival wins every match it has left. A tragic number is the further defeats after which the outcome is impossible even if the club wins everything else. A reachable range is the highest and lowest finish still arithmetically available. Ties are read against the club being judged: a rival who can only draw level still blocks a clinch, so our clinch can trail an official announcement by a day, while a rival must finish strictly above a club to eliminate it. Goal difference, head to head records and the official tiebreakers are not part of any figure here. The live table is at, the remaining fixtures at, the clinch and tragic columns for every club at, the qualification and relegation rules at, the method at, and the scenario tool at. Barcelona's page is, Sevilla's and Elche's.