K League 2 promotion race 2026 - Suwon Samsung need 7 points from 7 matches to clinch a top five place

Suwon Samsung Bluewings lead K League 2 on 53 points and need seven more from their last seven matches to settle a top five place without reference to anyone else. Two wins and a draw do it. Nobody else in the promotion places is close to that: Suwon FC and Seoul E-Land both need 12, Daegu 14, and Hwaseong 16 from a maximum of 18. All five numbers point at the same finishing total, 60, the first total no club outside the five can reach. Five clubs hold the five places and all five now carry a clinch number, which is itself new. The rest of the table is measured in defeats.

Every figure here is as of the September 20 update. Of the season's 272 matches, 216 have been played and 56 are left. The last results in the data are from Saturday the 19th and Sunday the 20th, and the next fixtures are not until October 9, so this table stands for almost three weeks. Clinch numbers assume the worst case throughout, that every rival takes maximum points from every fixture it has left. None of this is a projection.

Suwon have played 25, won 16, drawn 5 and lost 4, with 39 goals scored and 20 conceded. Sixteen wins is the most in the league and 20 conceded is the fewest. Seven matches left means 21 points still available and a ceiling of 74. Their clinch number for a top five place is 7 and their clinch number for the title is 17, the only title clinch number anywhere on the board. Their worst arithmetically reachable finish is ninth.

Second and third are separated by goals. Suwon FC and Seoul E-Land are both on 48, and Suwon FC are second because their goal difference is plus 21 against plus 15, the best in the league. Suwon FC have played 25, won 13, drawn 9 and lost 3, the fewest defeats of any club, and have seven matches left for a ceiling of 69. Seoul E-Land have played 26, won 14, drawn 6 and lost 6, with six left and a ceiling of 66. Both need 12 points, which for Suwon FC is 12 of 21 and for Seoul E-Land 12 of 18. The same number over a shorter run is the harder number.

Daegu are fourth on 46 from 26 matches, 13 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats, with six left and a ceiling of 64. Their clinch number is 14 of a possible 18. Hwaseong are fifth on 44 from 26, 12 wins, 8 draws and 6 defeats, with six left and a ceiling of 62, and their clinch number is 16 of 18. That is the tightest requirement in the promotion places: five wins and a draw is the only way to land on 16 and six wins the only way past it, which leaves two dropped points of slack across the whole run. Daegu are also the one club with no fixture in the next round.

Below the line, thirteen clubs are still arithmetically alive and four are not. Busan are sixth on 41 with six matches left and a tragic number of 6, the longest rope on the board, because only losing all six puts their maximum below five rivals. Gimpo are seventh on 35 with seven left and a tragic number of 5. Chungnam Asan and Gyeongnam are level on 34, Chungnam Asan ahead on goal difference, and both are on 4. Seongnam on 31 and Paju on 29 are both on 3. Chungbuk Cheongju on 29 and Yongin on 27 are both on 2, the shortest ropes still attached to anything.

Ranked by ceiling rather than by points, the order runs Suwon 74, Suwon FC 69, Seoul E-Land 66, Daegu 64, Hwaseong 62, Busan 59, Gimpo 56, then Chungnam Asan and Gyeongnam on 55, Seongnam 52, Paju 50, Yongin 48 and Chungbuk Cheongju 47. The number that keeps recurring is 44. A chasing club is out when five rivals already hold more points than its maximum, and the five points that do the excluding are Suwon's 53, Suwon FC's 48, Seoul E-Land's 48, Daegu's 46 and Hwaseong's 44. Busan losing five and winning one would finish on 44, level with Hwaseong rather than above them, which is exactly why their number is 6 and not 5.

How to read these numbers. A clinch number is the smallest further return in league points that guarantees an outcome even if every rival takes maximum points from here, so it assumes every other club wins out. A tragic number is the count of further defeats after which the outcome is impossible, and it assumes the opposite, that every rival stops collecting points where they are today. Zero means it is already settled. A blank clinch means no run of a club's own results can guarantee the outcome, and a blank tragic means the outcome cannot yet be taken away. Level clubs are separated by goal difference, then goals scored, then wins, none of which this arithmetic models, so nothing is ever settled on a tie: a rival who can still draw level with you blocks your clinch, and a rival you can only draw level with does not eliminate you. The live table is at, the remaining fixtures at, the promotion and tie rules at, and Suwon's own page at. To drop your own results into the last seven matches and watch the numbers move, use.