Serie A table, September 20 - Roma, Inter and Lazio level on 13 points, split by goal difference

Roma, Inter and Lazio are all on 13 points at the top of Serie A, and nothing but goal difference separates them. Roma is plus eleven, Inter plus seven, Lazio plus five. All three have won four and drawn one, and none has lost. The fifth round is still in progress, and every one of the twenty clubs can still finish first and every one can still finish last.

Every number below is computed from results as of the September 20 update, with part of the round still to play. Ten clubs have played five matches and ten have played four. That gap matters more than usual this early, because a match in hand is three points of ceiling.

The three leaders reached 13 by different routes. Roma has scored 14 and conceded three; only Cagliari, on two, has conceded fewer. Inter has scored 15, more than anyone, and conceded eight, the most of any unbeaten club. Lazio has scored eight, the fewest of the three, and conceded three. Roma and Inter drew 2-2 on Sunday, which is why that pair are still joined, and Lazio won 2-0 at Venezia the same day to join them.

Fourth place is an odd shape this week. Cagliari has 12 points from five matches, four wins and one defeat, with five goals scored and two conceded, the fewest goals conceded in the league. Como has 10 points from four, three wins and a draw, still unbeaten, and it plays again later on Sunday. Cagliari has 33 matches left and Como has 34, so Cagliari's maximum possible total is 111 points and Como's is 112. That single point of ceiling is the whole reason our table says Como can still clinch a top-four place on its own results and Cagliari cannot, and the figures behind it show how little the distinction means in September. Roma, Inter and Lazio would each have to take 98 of the 99 points still available to them, and Como 101 of 102. For the title even that point of slack disappears, because those same four would have to win every remaining match. A clinch number this large says how early it is, not who is winning.

The top nine has an unfamiliar look. Cagliari is fourth and Como fifth. Frosinone is seventh with seven points from four matches and a goal difference of plus three. Sassuolo is ninth with seven points from five, and its nine goals scored are level with Como and behind only Inter's 15 and Roma's 14. Sassuolo has conceded nine as well, exactly as many as it has scored, and only Udinese and Fiorentina on 11, Monza on 12 and Venezia on 13 have let in more. Monza is 15th on four points from five after beating Sassuolo 2-1 on Saturday.

The familiar names are mostly behind them. Milan is sixth and unbeaten, but its eight points come from two wins and two draws in four matches. Juventus is eighth with seven points from four. Napoli and Atalanta are tenth and eleventh on six points each, both from four matches, both with two wins and two defeats. Fiorentina is 16th with three points from four, one win and three losses, and a goal difference of minus six. Bologna is 17th with two points from five and no win yet; its three goals in five matches are the fewest of any club that has played five.

Nobody can be relegated yet, and nobody is safe yet. Eighteen of the twenty can still get themselves clear of the bottom three without help, and two can no longer. Venezia is last with no points from five matches, four goals scored and 13 conceded, and relegation becomes mathematically certain only after 33 further defeats, which is every match it has left. Parma and Genoa have one point each from four. The safety numbers run the other way and are just as blunt. To be clear of the bottom three regardless of results elsewhere, Parma and Genoa would each need all 102 points still available to them, and Udinese, Torino and Monza would each need all 99 of theirs. Bologna and Venezia are the two that cannot reach that bar on their own results at all. Even Roma, top of the table, would need 90 more points to be mathematically certain of staying up. None of that means seven clubs are going down. It means 33 matches is a long time and "guaranteed" is a very high bar in September.

Three matches are still to play on Sunday and two on Monday, and they square the round up. Como goes to Frosinone; a win takes Como to 13 points and makes it four clubs level at the top on five matches each. Parma hosts Genoa, the only fixture between two clubs on a single point, and neither has won this season. Fiorentina hosts Napoli. On Monday, Milan hosts Lecce and Juventus hosts Atalanta. After that the fixture list goes quiet until October 10, when Genoa hosts Fiorentina, followed on the 11th by Lecce against Bologna and Inter against Parma.

How to read these numbers. A clinch number is the minimum number of further points that guarantees a place even if every rival wins every remaining match. A tragic number is the number of further defeats after which a place becomes impossible even if the club wins everything else. Neither is a prediction, and five matches into a 38-match season both sit close to their maximum, which is why they belong in a table rather than a headline. Where clubs are level our table orders them by goal difference, and every clinch and elimination figure counts a tie against the club being measured, so our confirmations can trail an official one by a day. The full table with each club's clinch and tragic numbers is at, the fixture list at, what the top four and the bottom three lead to at, and a scenario builder at. Each club has its own page, Roma's at.