MLB playoff picture with nine games left — the Astros must win out to clinch on their own, and three teams are within two games

Nine games remain for most clubs, and the arithmetic has started to close doors. Eight of the twelve postseason spots are effectively decided; the other four are where the last week and a half will be spent. Every number below is computed from results through Thursday, September 18, and every clinch number assumes the worst case — that every rival wins every remaining game.

American League. Tampa Bay (93-59) and the Yankees (88-64) have clinched postseason places. The Rays' magic number to win the East is 6. Boston (83-70) needs three more wins to clinch a wild card regardless of what anyone else does; with nine games left, that is a comfortable margin.

The AL Central is a dead heat. Chicago and Cleveland are both 78-75, and each needs eight wins from their last nine to guarantee a wild card on their own. Neither can clinch the division without help, because a tie at the top is resolved by tiebreakers this site does not model — so the honest statement is that the Central will be decided by head-to-head results, not by either team's schedule alone.

The last AL spot is the story of the week. Houston (77-76) holds it today, but their magic number is 9 with 9 games left: they have to win out to be certain. Behind them, Toronto (76-77) and Texas (76-77) sit one game back and Baltimore (75-78) two. Toronto's tragic number is 7 — seven more losses and they are out even if they win the rest. Texas's is 8, Baltimore's 6. Detroit (tragic 3), Minnesota (2) and Seattle (3) are alive on paper only.

National League. Milwaukee (95-58) has clinched the Central outright. The Dodgers (93-60) have clinched a postseason place and need one more win to lock the West. Atlanta (89-64) is one win from clinching a spot and six from the East title. Philadelphia and the Cubs (both 85-68) each need five wins from nine to clinch on their own, which they will almost certainly get.

The sixth NL seed belongs to San Diego (84-69) today, with a magic number of 6. The only team that can realistically catch them is Arizona (80-73), four games back with a tragic number of 5: five more Diamondbacks losses, or any combination that pushes San Diego's lead past what nine games can recover, ends it. Miami and Pittsburgh (both 76-77) have a tragic number of 1 — one more loss and they are mathematically eliminated. St. Louis, Washington, Cincinnati, the Mets, the Giants and the Rockies are already out.

Two things to watch this weekend. First, Houston plays San Francisco and then hosts San Diego next week; every Astros loss is a game the Blue Jays and Rangers can make up without playing each other. Second, the Chicago–Cleveland division race: if the two finish level, the division goes to the tiebreaker (season series first), and the loser of that tiebreaker still has a wild card to fall back on — provided they finish ahead of Houston, Toronto and Texas.

How to read these numbers. A magic number is the minimum wins that guarantee a spot even if every rival wins out; a tragic number is the losses that make a spot impossible even if the team wins out. Ties are counted against the team in question, so our clinches will sometimes trail the official announcement by a day. The full table, updated every ten minutes, is on the MLB magic numbers page; each team's own page answers the question directly — can they still make it, and what has to happen.