Braves clinch the NL East, Rangers and Astros stay level at 78-80 - and one loss by either would put Cleveland in

Atlanta has the National League East. The Braves beat Cincinnati 3-2 on Wednesday and are 93-65, with a zero in the division column. That settles all three National League division titles: Milwaukee (99-59) has the Central and the Dodgers (97-61) the West. Philadelphia lost 4-1 at home to Milwaukee the same night and finishes the day six games back. What is still open in the league is the order at the top, where Atlanta will finish second or third, and three wild-card places for four clubs.

Every figure below comes from the standings after all 16 games of Wednesday, September 23 (US time), had finished, run through the same engine that fills the tables on this site. Our earlier piece went up while Wednesday's games were still being played; this one waited for the last of them. Clinch numbers assume every rival wins out and tragic numbers assume every rival loses out, so none of it is a projection or a probability.

The American League West did not separate. Texas lost 7-2 at home to the Mets, Houston lost 6-5 at Seattle, and the two are level again, now at 78-80 with four games each to play. Neither has a clinch number, and both tragic numbers are 4, every game each has left. The blank is the one explained in that earlier piece. To find a club's clinch number, this board lets every rival win out and puts the club being judged at the bottom of any tie. Four Texas wins make 82-80, and so do four Houston wins, so each club loses its own table to the other. The wild card is no way round it, because on that same table Cleveland finishes 86-76 and Chicago 85-77. Houston is the club marked inside the field on the current table, and each can still finish anywhere from fourth to eleventh in the league. Only a split result separates them. If one wins and the other loses, the winner gets a clinch number and a division number of 3, every game it would have left, and the loser's tragic number falls to 2. If both win or both lose, they stay level with three to play, still without a clinch number, and both tragic numbers fall to 3.

Cleveland and Chicago lost on Wednesday too, Cleveland 1-0 at Boston and Chicago 5-4 at Kansas City, and both of their numbers still fell: Cleveland's from 2 to 1, Chicago's from 3 to 2. The reason is in the West. A clinch number on this board is measured against the best finish a rival can still reach, and the two West losses lowered that ceiling from 83 wins to 82. Cleveland (82-76) needs one more win to get clear of it and Chicago (81-77) two, both landing on 83. Run the same arithmetic from the other side and Cleveland's 1 does not have to come from Cleveland. The first time Texas or Houston loses, the West club left in the wild-card race can reach no more than 81 wins. Cleveland already has 82, so it is in on this board whatever it does that night. On its own, the same loss would also cut Chicago's number to 1. Cleveland's division number is 4, all of its remaining games, and one Cleveland loss on its own would blank it, because Chicago could then draw level at 85 wins. Chicago has no division number. Cleveland can still finish anywhere from third to seventh in the league, Chicago from third to eighth.

Above them nothing is left to settle. Boston beat Cleveland to reach 85-73 and was already in. Tampa Bay (96-62) has the East and will finish with the league's best record whatever happens, and the Yankees (91-67) with the second best. Boston can finish anywhere from third to fifth. Baltimore beat Toronto 4-2 in both games of a doubleheader, but both were already out. Baltimore (78-81, three left) can reach only 81-81, level with Chicago's floor, and a level finish counts against the club being judged. Toronto (77-82) cannot get past 80 wins. Seattle, which beat Houston, is out as well: its best finish, 78-84, only draws level with where Texas and Houston end up if they lose out.

In the National League, the three-way tie at the top of the wild-card race is gone. San Diego won 5-1 at the Dodgers and is 88-70, one win from a place. The Cubs lost 3-2 at home to Miami and Philadelphia 4-1 at home to Milwaukee, so both are 87-71 and each still needs two. Arizona won 5-3 at Colorado to reach 84-74, and its tragic number is still 1, as the earlier piece said a win would leave it: the ceiling of 88 wins already assumed Arizona wins out. What the San Diego win changed is the floor. If San Diego lost out it would finish 88-74, the Cubs and Phillies 87-75. So one more Arizona loss, which leaves the Diamondbacks able to reach only 87 wins, now settles two things at once. Arizona is out on this board, level with the Cubs' and Phillies' floors, and San Diego is in, because 88 clears 87. The Cubs and Phillies would still need a win each. In the earlier piece, with all three at 87-70, that same loss would have clinched nobody. San Diego, the Cubs and Philadelphia can each finish anywhere from fourth to seventh in the league, Arizona from fourth to eighth.

What to watch is short. In the American League, the next loss by Texas or Houston puts Cleveland in, and so does the next Cleveland win. A split result between the two West clubs gives the winner a clinch number. In the National League, one San Diego win or one Arizona loss settles San Diego, and that Arizona loss also ends Arizona's season on this board. The remaining fixtures are on the schedule page, results land on the live table, and what any single result would change is on the what-if page.

How to read these numbers. A clinch or magic number is the minimum further wins that guarantee a postseason place even if every rival wins every remaining game. A tragic number is the further losses after which a place is impossible even if the club wins every remaining game. Zero means it is done, and a blank means no run of that club's own results can settle it. In MLB this board puts the judged club at the bottom of every tie on its own final table, on both sides of the count, so a clinch here can trail the official announcement and an elimination can be called on a tie the league would break on paper. Official tiebreakers and head-to-head fixtures are not part of the calculation. Club figures are on the magic number page, the bracket and seeding rules on the postseason page, the arithmetic on the methodology page, and each club's own answer on its team page: Atlanta, Cleveland, San Diego.