🪜 Analysis

LaLiga relegation 2026: Elche, Valencia and Málaga hold the drop places and two cannot reach safety

As of the September 20 update. Three clubs go down, and Elche, Valencia and Málaga fill those three places. Elche and Málaga cannot yet reach a total that guarantees survival at all, and Elche, uniquely, sits in a relegation place with no relegation number either.

Clinch Desk · Sun, Sep 20

Elche cannot reach a total that guarantees survival in LaLiga, and neither can Málaga. Win every match left and Elche finish on 98 points, Málaga on 99. The bar for guaranteed safety in our engine is 100. That is why the safe-finish column is blank for both clubs, and they are the only two in the division where it is blank. Elche carry a second blank as well. They sit in a relegation place and have no relegation number at all.

Every figure below is computed as of the September 20 update. Two of that Sunday's matches are in the table, Sevilla 1-3 Barcelona and Celta 5-0 Racing. Atlético against Real Madrid and Getafe against Málaga were still to be played when these numbers were drawn, so nothing here counts them. Sixty-four of the season's 380 matches have been played, and the clubs are unevenly through them: nine have seven behind them, ten have six, and Levante have five.

The three relegation places belong to Elche on five points, Valencia on four and Málaga on three. Elche are eighteenth on goal difference rather than on points. Villarreal, Levante and Getafe are all level with them on five, and level clubs are ordered here by goal difference and then goals scored: Villarreal minus one, Levante minus two, Getafe minus four, Elche minus six. The four have not played the same amount of football either. Elche have seven matches behind them, Getafe and Villarreal six, Levante five. Levante have 33 matches remaining, more than any other club in LaLiga.

The 100-point bar explains the rest of that column. Take any club's current total, add the further points the engine says it needs to be guaranteed safe, and you get 100 every time. Barcelona 21 plus 79. Alavés 11 plus 89. Deportivo La Coruña 9 plus 91. Getafe 5 plus 95. Valencia 4 plus 96. In September that ladder is the league table stood on its head, and it tells you nothing the table has not already told you. It does mark out one group. Racing Santander, Celta Vigo, Espanyol and Valencia all top out at exactly 100, so all four would have to win every match they have left to clear the bar, which is a statement about September rather than about those four clubs.

Two points is the entire distance from twentieth to fifteenth, and the oddities are spread either side of that line. Racing Santander have conceded 21 goals in seven matches, four more than anyone else in the division, and they are fourteenth. Getafe are the mirror image, seventeenth with three goals scored in six matches, a total only Valencia's two beats for sparseness and only Málaga's three matches. Neither club is in a relegation place today. To be certain of staying out of one, Racing need all 93 points still available to them and Getafe need 95 of their 96, which is a margin of one dropped point.

Turn to the drop column and only two clubs in LaLiga carry a number at all. Valencia's relegation number is 32 and Málaga's is 32, and in both cases that is every match they have left. Both figures describe today and say nothing about May. As the table stands, no run of their own results short of losing the lot settles the question, and both numbers will shrink every week that the clubs above them take points. Elche, meanwhile, occupy a relegation place and have no relegation number whatsoever. Lose all 31 of their remaining matches and Elche finish on five points, and only 14 clubs are already certain to finish above that, because three more are level with Elche on five right now. Certain relegation requires 17 clubs certain to finish above you, and the count does not reach it. Those same three clubs are why Valencia and Málaga do have numbers: 18 clubs are already above Valencia's four points and 19 are above Málaga's three.

What to watch next. Getafe host Málaga later on Sunday, September 20, seventeenth against twentieth. Málaga are the only club in LaLiga still without a win, with three draws and three defeats from six matches. A first win takes them to six points and clear of all four clubs currently on five. A Getafe win takes Getafe to eight. On Monday, September 21, Valencia host Real Sociedad, and a Valencia win would be only their second of the season and would put them on seven, level with the four clubs that sit eleventh to fourteenth. The same day Villarreal host Levante, fifteenth against sixteenth, both on five points, with a winner going to eight and the loser left on five, while a draw lifts both to six. Elche do not appear in our fixture feed at all after their 3-1 win at Espanyol on September 19, which remains their only win of the season. The feed is then empty until October 10, when three matches restart the season, Espanyol at Málaga among them.

How to read these numbers. In a points league a clinch number is the minimum further points that guarantee an outcome even if every rival wins every match it has left, and a tragic number is the further defeats after which the outcome is impossible even if the club takes everything else on offer. A blank means no run of that club's own results can settle the question yet. A tie is never treated as settling the question in either direction, so one club counts as above another only when it is strictly ahead, and our clinch can trail an official announcement by a day. Level clubs are ordered by goal difference and then goals scored. The full table with every club's figures is on the league page, the remaining fixtures are at, the qualification and relegation rules at, and you can push individual results through the table yourself at. Club pages work like for Elche and for Valencia.

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