K League 2 promotion race 2026: Gyeongnam, Seongnam and Paju are out of the top five, the line drops to 55 and Suwon need 5 more for the title

This round settled things at the bottom of the race. Gyeongnam lost 3-1 at Busan on October 25, Seongnam lost 2-0 at home to Suwon Samsung, and Paju drew 1-1 with Hwaseong, and all three met the elimination conditions in our previous piece. Gyeongnam can reach 47 at most by winning all four of their remaining matches, and Seongnam and Paju 43. Five clubs are already above them. Nobody clinched a top five place. Suwon FC lost 1-0 at home to Chungnam Asan, and with Paju failing to beat Hwaseong, neither Suwon FC nor Seoul E-Land, who had the week off, could clinch.

Every figure here is as of the October 25 update, 240 of the season's 272 matches, with 32 left. On October 24 Daegu FC won 4-2 at Jeonnam Dragons and Gimhae FC won 2-1 at Gimpo FC. On October 25 Busan IPark beat Gyeongnam FC 3-1, Suwon won 2-0 at Seongnam FC, Chungnam Asan won 1-0 at Suwon FC, Yongin FC won 2-0 at Chungbuk Cheongju, Cheonan City beat Ansan Greeners 3-1, and Paju Citizen and Hwaseong FC drew 1-1. Seoul E-Land did not play. Clinch numbers assume the worst case, that every rival takes maximum points from every match it has left, and a rival who can finish exactly level is counted as a threat.

The table reads Suwon 62, Suwon FC 54, Seoul E-Land 54, Daegu 52, Busan 48, Hwaseong 45, Chungnam Asan 39, Gimpo 38, Gyeongnam 35, Chungbuk Cheongju 32, Seongnam 31, Paju 31, Yongin 30, Cheonan 29, Ansan 25, Jeonnam 24 and Gimhae 17. Suwon FC sit above Seoul E-Land and Seongnam above Paju because the K League separates clubs level on points by goals scored first: 53 to 52, and 30 to 27. Busan and Hwaseong have three matches left and the rest of the top group four.

The line has come down from 57 to 55. Hwaseong, sixth on 45 with three matches left, can reach 54. On 54 a club could still be caught level by Hwaseong, so it is not enough, while 55 is out of reach of everyone outside the top five. That gives Suwon FC and Seoul E-Land a clinch number of 1, Daegu 3 and Busan 7, every one of them landing exactly on 55. For Busan, 7 from three matches means two wins and a draw or better. Below them the elimination numbers are Hwaseong 3, Chungnam Asan 2 and Gimpo 1. One more defeat would leave Gimpo a ceiling of 47, below Busan's 48. Eight clubs are left in the race for the five places, counting Suwon, who have already clinched: Suwon, Suwon FC, Seoul E-Land, Daegu, Busan, Hwaseong, Chungnam Asan and Gimpo.

The title is the place that carries automatic promotion to K League 1, and the clubs below go through the promotion playoffs. Suwon's title number fell from 11 to 5. Suwon FC in second can reach 66, so 67 is beyond everyone, and Suwon on 62 need 5 from their last four matches, a win and two draws or better. Four clubs can still finish first: Suwon, Suwon FC (title elimination number 2), Seoul E-Land (2) and Daegu (1). Suwon's lowest reachable place is fourth.

We ran all 6,561 win, draw and loss combinations of the next round through the engine behind the site's tables. The big one is Daegu against Suwon on Saturday, October 31. If Suwon win in Daegu and, the same weekend, Suwon FC fail to beat Ansan and Seoul E-Land fail to win at Yongin, Suwon are champions. Daegu drop out of the title race unless they beat Suwon; a draw is not enough. Suwon FC and Seoul E-Land drop out of it if Suwon win in Daegu and they themselves fail to win.

Three clubs can clinch the top five that weekend. Suwon FC against Ansan and Seoul E-Land at Yongin clinch with a win or a draw, and even with a defeat unless Hwaseong win at Gyeongnam the same day. Daegu clinch by beating Suwon, with a draw unless Hwaseong win, and with a defeat only if Gyeongnam beat Hwaseong. Busan have the week off and cannot clinch. At the other end, Hwaseong, Chungnam Asan and Gimpo cannot be eliminated that weekend whatever happens.

The full round. On Saturday, October 31, Suwon are at Daegu, Hwaseong at Gyeongnam, Gimpo at Chungnam Asan and Seoul E-Land at Yongin. On Sunday, November 1, Seongnam are at Jeonnam, Ansan at Suwon FC, Paju at Chungbuk Cheongju and Cheonan at Gimhae. Busan have the week off.

How to read these numbers. A clinch number is the smallest further return, counted in league points, that guarantees an outcome even if every rival takes maximum points from everything it has left. A tragic number is the count of further defeats after which the outcome becomes impossible even if the club wins everything else, assuming rivals stay where they are. Zero means already settled, and a blank means arithmetic alone cannot settle it yet. These numbers treat each rival on its own, so the combinations above, which use the real fixtures, can settle things sooner. A rival who can finish exactly level counts against a club when we decide a clinch, so our clinch can trail an official announcement by a day. Goals scored, goal difference and the official tiebreakers are not part of this arithmetic. The live table is at, the fixtures at, the promotion and tiebreak rules at, every club's figures at and the method at. Club pages: Suwon, Suwon FC, Seoul E-Land, Daegu and Hwaseong. To set the October 31 and November 1 results yourself, use.